# Calculating Chance

## Calculating Chance PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION (PD)

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### Calculating Chance - Dateiversionen

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The best we can say is how likely they are to happen, using the idea of probability. When a single die is thrown, there are six possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

But when we actually try it we might get 48 heads, or 55 heads There are 4 Kings, so that is 4 different sample points.

The Event Alex is looking for is a "double", where both dice have the same number. It is made up of these 6 Sample Points :. After Experiments , Alex has 19 "double" Events Hide Ads About Ads.

Probability How likely something is to happen. Example: there are 5 marbles in a bag: 4 are blue, and 1 is red. Nevertheless, looked at logically, you can see that the 'unprecedented' event has already happened on each of the previous flips when the coin came up heads again.

So, at each new spin the probabilities reset. The coin has no memory and each event has no effect on the next. Now the number of possible outcomes is that for each object, raised to the power of the number of objects.

With three coins, there will be eight possible outcomes 2x2x2. Note that in calculating probabilities it is necessary to keep each outcome separate, even when they seem to be the same.

Therefore the probability is three-eighths, or But the chance of all three coins showing tails is much less. There is only one TTT event, so the probability is one in eight or 13 per cent.

Essentially, the same formula applies to dice - but calculating the probabilities is much more complex. Plainly the probability of rolling a six with a single six-sided dice I never say 'die' is one event in which it lands with six uppermost, divided by six possible outcomes from a single throw, or one sixth Now it might seem that that chances of throwing two sixes with two dice might also be one sixth two six faces divided by a total of 12 faces but this is to misunderstand the meaning of 'outcomes'.

Again, the number of possible outcomes is the number of those for each dice, raised to the power of the number of dice in play.

I say 'particular' number because the chances of throwing any 'double' are different. And what about the chances of a particular number, say five, coming up on at least one of the two dice?

Well, if the probability of throwing a five on one dice is But that wouldn't be exactly correct. There are six possible events in which Dice A shows a five and six more where the five shows on Dice B.

Another way to work out the probabilities is the Rule of One. Subtracting the probabilities of any given event from one always tells you the chances of the opposite occurring.

This 'back to front' method becomes more useful as the number of dice increase. As an example, it would be quite hard, when rolling four dice, to work out the chances of one of the dice showing four or less.

But it's relatively easy to work out the reverse case that all the dice end up fives or sixes. In a future article, we'll take a look at working out the probabilities on dependent events , which may even include the chances of that elusive number 13 lottery ball coming out next onto the rack!

Q: Your discussion of chance and probability was clear regarding the odds of winning at roulette. However, I was wondering how to calculate the odds of a change of event occurring after its opposite.

For example, the probability of red coming up on the wheel after five blacks as compared with after three or any other number of blacks.

## Calculating Chance Video

Intro to Conditional Probability

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